Lanarkshire Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lanarkshire Mid: Overview

Projection: SNP seat

Implied MP at 2017:Angela Crawley  (SNP)
County/Area:Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:76,912
Turnout:64.0%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP17,29635.1%
LAB17,24235.0%
CON13,00126.4%
LIB1,0792.2%
UKIP6101.2%
OTH260.1%
SNP Majority540.1%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lanarkshire Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Lanarkshire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Lanarkshire Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse12,446Lanarkshire South West2,4652,0752079303,557008,397
South LanarkshireClydesdale North54Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1112100120036
South LanarkshireClydesdale South7,335Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire South West		1,1841,85410312101,925005,187
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central North14,162Lanarkshire South West2,1903,38030410903,663009,646
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central South11,181Lanarkshire South West1,5412,8602858802,907007,681
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride East9,780Lanarkshire South West1,4652,3192477902,529006,639
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride South11,698Lanarkshire South West1,7802,6142607303,534008,261
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride West12,550Lanarkshire South West3,0692,0431836402,897008,256
 Total79,206 13,70517,1571,590627021,0240054,103

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lanark and Hamilton East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse835Lanarkshire South West224134176025000631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston10,040Lanarkshire Mid2,4411,6551294601,952006,223
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,324Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,03238150130844002,320
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,639Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,6312,3181835402,442007,628
South LanarkshireClydesdale South608Lanarkshire Mid11212288013100381
South LanarkshireClydesdale West14,815Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,0783,13829412503,263009,898
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,137Lanarkshire Mid1,7751,9491485202,101006,025
South LanarkshireHamilton South10,495Lanarkshire Mid2,0522,7381606402,185007,199
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock633Lanarkshire West137167157016700493
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,334Lanarkshire Mid2,6943,48221017603,109009,671
 Total75,860 16,17616,0841,214551016,4440050,469

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lanark and Hamilton East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Motherwell and Wishaw

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Motherwell and Wishaw, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Motherwell and WishawTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill3,811Lanarkshire North West45596655290917002,422
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown5,817Lanarkshire North East6651,532724901,346003,664
North LanarkshireMotherwell North9,897Lanarkshire North East1,2272,6011707902,202006,279
North LanarkshireMotherwell South East and Ravenscraig13,609Lanarkshire Mid1,5503,04716010103,242008,100
North LanarkshireMotherwell West10,056Lanarkshire North East1,5412,2881377802,499006,543
North LanarkshireMurdostoun10,246Lanarkshire North East1,3842,0691298402,510006,176
North LanarkshireWishaw14,076Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire North East		1,6683,32919811303,433008,741
 Total67,512 8,49015,832921533016,1490041,925

The full details of these calculations are given on the Motherwell and Wishaw seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rutherglen and Hamilton West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South LanarkshireBlantyre12,991Lanarkshire West1,5613,5142017603,1360778,565
South LanarkshireCambuslang East12,020Lanarkshire West1,4303,0262425502,7610277,541
South LanarkshireCambuslang West12,323Lanarkshire West1,5692,6705755702,7290417,641
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East2,852Lanarkshire Mid450622511508300261,994
South LanarkshireHamilton South3,851Lanarkshire West565986632109910282,654
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock13,295Lanarkshire West1,7662,91524412303,5870428,677
South LanarkshireRutherglen Central and North10,146Lanarkshire West1,1012,8412175802,2930606,570
South LanarkshireRutherglen South11,152Lanarkshire West1,5012,5265646002,5100707,231
 Total78,630 9,94319,1002,157465018,837037150,873

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lanarkshire Mid

The new seat of Lanarkshire Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lanarkshire Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireMotherwell South East and Ravenscraig13,180Motherwell and Wishaw1,5503,04716010103,242008,100
North LanarkshireWishaw12,076Motherwell and Wishaw1,4162,8271689602,915007,422
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,531Lanark and Hamilton East2,4411,6551294601,952006,223
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,329East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow51180044520831002,238
South LanarkshireClydesdale South583Lanark and Hamilton East11212288013100381
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,229Lanark and Hamilton East1,7751,9491485202,101006,025
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East3,141Rutherglen and Hamilton West450622511508300261,994
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,029Lanark and Hamilton East2,0522,7381606402,185007,199
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,814Lanark and Hamilton East2,6943,48221017603,109009,671
 Total76,912 13,00117,2421,078610017,29602649,253

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lanarkshire Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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